Dive Brief:
- Hurricane Milton is threatening to bring catastrophic damage across the state's Citrus Belt and agricultural production regions as the massive storm charts a path toward Florida's fertilizer plants and orange groves.
- Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday evening along the Florida Peninsula as one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic. Life-threatening winds could rip oranges from branches and cause tree damage, which "impacts production for years," said Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics.
- Beyond citrus, the storm could damage sugarcane, strawberries and plant nurseries in Central Florida, according to the Agriculture Department. Milton could also directly hit major phosphate fertilizer production plants in the Tampa Bay region.
Dive Insight:
Coastal areas in Florida still picking up the pieces from the destruction of Hurricane Helene are now turning their attention to Milton, which the National Hurricane Center says "has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Torrential rain, storm surge and fast-moving winds could bring significant, long-term damage to a wide swath of Florida's agricultural industry. Many orange groves throughout Florida are bearing fruit and nearing harvest, Davis of Everstream said, and the storm will likely cause steep production losses.
Many citrus growers are just recovering from 2022's Hurricane Ian, which sent production plummeting at a time when farms were already struggling with disease challenges and other issues.
"With the continued eastward projection of Hurricane Milton's path, it is imperative that we are once again prepared for a significant impact to the Florida citrus industry," Matt Joyner, CEO of industry group Florida Citrus Mutual, said in a letter to stakeholders.
The storm could also have widespread implications for the state's fertilizer industry. Around 40% of ammonium phosphate production occurs in the Tampa Bay area, according to Veronica Nigh, senior economist at The Fertilizer Institute. The Port of Tampa handles around 25% of U.S. fertilizer exports, also making it an important trading hub for the industry.
Damage to phosphate production could keep fertilizer prices elevated for farmers. Nigh said phosphate fertilizers are among the "most sticky to come down" from their price peaks in 2022.
"The impact of these hurricanes are going to continue to lead to elevated phosphate prices for this foreseeable future," she said.
